Jets May Be Forced to Part Ways With Young Star Due to the Salary Cap: Penguins Could Take Advantage

The Winnipeg Jets enter the 2025 summer with a gut decision: re-sign franchise winger Nikolaj Ehlers or spend their cap space somewhere else.

Ehlers is the domino to fall, and once that is decided, then the discussion turns to the main RFAs, Dylan Samberg and Gabriel Vilardi.

The Jets can retain all three if their collective deals remain below $23 million. Ehlers may be able to demand a big pay increase without disrupting the salary structure of the team, but doing it would take away at Winnipeg's flexibility.

If Ehlers is retained, roster shuffles will be required, particularly on defence, when Samberg's extension puts the Jets at eight NHL defencemen. That would mean placing Ville Heinola on waivers or making a trade to make room.

Samberg, 26, is one of Winnipeg's four foundational pillars and looks to be the easier negotiation. He has ties to the city with strong personal roots and a clear fit with Josh Morrissey.

Winnipeg's blueline looks strong with him on it, but vulnerable otherwise. A multi-year deal would be ideal, but arbitration and cap concerns may delay it.

Vilardi, who is also 26 this year, is tougher. He has arbitration rights and just had a career-high 61-point year for 71 games.

He might risk it on himself for a one-year contract and look to the $104 million cap in 2026 for a bigger payday. His UFA eligibility begins in 2027.

If Winnipeg signs Ehlers to a big increase, it can leave little room for keeping both Samberg and Vilardi. The door then opens for Penguins GM Kyle Dubas.

If the Jets cannot afford to pay both players, Dubas needs to make a move for one, either Samberg, an excellent top-four blue liner, or Vilardi, a smart, right-shot forward, to bolster Pittsburgh's core and capitalize on Winnipeg's cap meltdown.

Dubas said he wants to get younger, and getting one of these two Jets players would be a great way to start.