Top NHL Insider Pierre LeBrun Reveals Framework of an Erik Karlsson Trade

Is Erik Karlsson on the move once more? Pierre LeBrun says there's a possibility that Karlsson will be dealt, but it isn't easy.

It's dependent, first, on whether or not teams whiff on free agency and look to trades as a fallback option. It's dependent on Karlsson's $10 million cap hit over the next two seasons, and on whether or not he'd waive his complete no-move clause.

Timing, again, will be important: Karlsson is owed a $5 million signing bonus on July 1. Teams can attempt to pick him up after it's paid, but the Penguins would presumably require a second item returned if they pay it first.

Another twist is salary retention. The Sharks already eat up 13% of Karlsson's initial $11.5 million cap hit per season. The sweet spot to get trade attention would be around $7.5 million, but that would also mean more salary retention from Pittsburgh, and they won't do it without being fairly rewarded.

Karlsson, 35, is said to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to play for a team that is contending, which is understandable with the Penguins' rebuilding endeavor. However, he still has control of the situation.

Finally, the perception of Karlsson by teams matters. He performed well for Sweden at the 4 Nations tournament. Though not flawless in his own zone, his puck-moving and scoring skills still carry some value.

If he's traded, it's going to require a bold, imaginative GM to make it happen.